Saturday, February 16, 2008

Why Obama will win Ohio

Everyone accepts the GOP Primary is over. It's easy to change ones party at will here and vote for whomever one wants.

When voting, the voter just asks for a ballot for either party and votes for that primary.

This is directly from the Ohio Voting Information Guide

You may vote the primary ballot of the political party with which you currently wish to be affiliated. If you voted the primary ballot of a different political party in 2005 or 2006, you will complete a statement at your polling place confirming the change in your political party affiliation.

Ohio is populated by a large amount of GOP people who will be democrats in March. I certainly will be one of them. While I personally would rather see Hillary win, due to her being more moderate and beatable, I think the vast majority of moderate/libertarian/right leaning people have such bad feelings for Hillary that she will lose here.

The other thing is Ohio has a lot of populists who are more interested in a pure liberal candidate. While Hillary has painted herself as such, the rank and file people know she's a moderate and will accordingly vote against her.

I live in Ohio, in a blue county and it's amazing how much the tide has turned against the Clinton machine. People who six months ago were stalwart Hillary backers are now taking a hard lock at Obama. I think due to the Hillary machine, she'll capture a majority of the Democratic voters in Ohio. However, I think enough of the base will give Obama support that the defecting GOP voters will swing it to his favor.

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